Friday's session delivered a partial resolution to the week's central tension but left the structural questions wide open. Oil fell nearly 4% toward $69 - a four-month low - as Hormuz transit volumes accelerated and Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Ras Tanura, even as President Trump formally accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by launching drone strikes at vessels in the strait. The market's decision to sell oil regardless of Trump's statement tells you which narrative is dominant for now: supply restoration beats geopolitical theatre until proven otherwise.
Gold clung to $4,000 for a third consecutive session, the University of Michigan's final June reading showed five-year inflation expectations falling sharply to 3.3%, and there was brief relief across metals - but any comfort was quickly complicated by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari explicitly shifting his dot-plot position from a cut to a hike by year-end. Coming from one of the Fed's historically dovish voices, that matters.
GBP/JPY hit 212.85, reaching the 213.00 target this briefing has tracked for days. USD/JPY circled just below 161.85 without triggering intervention for another session. Silver held its year-low at $57.57 on a closing basis after a volatile intraday breach - the most consequential single price event of the week.
Heading into Monday, the key question is whether Asia reopens treating this week's 4% Nasdaq loss as a buying opportunity or as a warning. Nonfarm payrolls arrives on Thursday and will be the first real test of Kashkari's hike call. The full version details the precise entry and exit levels across all eight instruments, along with what early Asia price action to watch before London opens. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete breakdown before the next session begins.