Thursday's session was decided in the thirty minutes after 13:30 GMT. The June nonfarm payrolls report delivered 57,000 jobs against a consensus of 113,000-115,000, collapsing September Fed hike pricing from above 60% to below 50% and triggering the broadest dollar selloff of the week. Gold surged above $4,130, silver led the covered universe with a gain above 3.8%, EUR/USD cleared 1.1446, and USD/JPY retreated from its forty-year ceiling toward 160.91. The key level of the day was $4,100 in gold - the morning briefing had identified it as the threshold for genuine structural improvement on a weak NFP print, and the metal cleared it decisively.
The session did not end cleanly. Iranian negotiators left Doha as talks paused for Ayatollah Khamenei's multi-day funeral from July 4 to July 9, and Iran issued a fresh Hormuz route warning alongside reported threats to impose Hormuz tolls in mid-August - a specific date now embedded in the oil market's risk calendar. US markets close tomorrow for Independence Day, and the next 72 hours carry both intervention risk in JPY and geopolitical event risk around the funeral with no Friday session to absorb it.
The full evening recap covers the exact levels to watch in gold, silver, USD/JPY, and WTI through the long weekend, the FOMC repricing implications for next week's ISM Services data, and the precise conditions under which the Hormuz tail risk re-enters oil pricing. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete analysis.