Monday's session was shaped before London opened. The 60-day US-Iran ceasefire expired with Strait of Hormuz transit volumes collapsing to just three ships on Sunday against a pre-war daily rate near 130, and a senior Iranian official publicly threatened an offensive posture if diplomacy failed. Markets received the news with measured rather than panicked risk-off: equities drifted lower, crude held near $83 without breaking the triangle resistance that has capped it all month, and gold cleared $4,400 on a sustained opening basis for the first time in weeks. Silver outperformed, pushing above $67 to break through the resistance zone that has contained the metal since the safe-haven rally began. EUR/USD extended to its highest level in two months near 1.1600, and USD/CAD held near 1.3876, with Canada's July CPI coming in at 3.0% year over year - a modest beat on the headline that confirmed the gasoline reversal without changing the Bank of Canada's neutral stance.
The level that mattered most today was WTI's symmetrical triangle upper boundary at $83.45 to $83.50. Even with the most acute geopolitical input of the month landing before the London open, crude did not close above it. That rejection deserves respect. The geopolitical floor is holding; the ceiling is doing structural work.
Into Tuesday, the UK labour market and average earnings report at 07:00 provides the first domestic GBP catalyst of the week, with a reading above 4.5% needed to give GBP/JPY a clean run toward 216.50. The dominant event risk for the full week remains Wednesday's FOMC minutes at 19:00 UK time, where the three-dissent voting record from the July meeting will be contextualised in detail that could reshape every long position built on the soft-data thesis. The full briefing covers exact positioning levels, which early-warning signals to watch overnight, and where the FOMC minutes could produce the week's most asymmetric move. Subscribe for the complete morning and evening editions.