Friday's session was defined by a CPI print that landed close enough to forecast to be called in-line but carried a core surprise that closed the door on any remaining hope of the Fed standing pat next week. August consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% year-on-year, both in line with consensus, but core CPI's 0.3% monthly gain was a tenth above forecast - enough to push Fed hike odds from 70% to roughly 90% and ensure the September 16 decision is effectively pre-written.
Oil told the more interesting story. WTI hit $104.93 intraday - within touching distance of the morning briefing's $105 target - before Iranian state media confirmed that Tehran will meet with Gulf states in Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz. That single diplomatic signal, unconfirmed and preliminary, was sufficient to knock WTI back below $100 on the close, snapping an eight-day winning streak. Whether the Oman talks represent a genuine diplomatic opening or simply talks about talks will determine whether Monday's Asia session reopens above or below that psychologically critical level.
Gold closed near $4,385, holding its geopolitical floor despite 90% Fed hike odds - a quietly significant data point. USD/JPY remained pinned near 154, unable to break 153.00 for the fourth consecutive session. The week ahead - Fed on Tuesday, BOE on Wednesday, BOJ on Thursday - is the most compressed central bank sequence of 2026, and the positioning guidance for navigating it, along with the full level-by-level breakdown for every instrument, is in the complete Evening Recap. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the full briefing.